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Cricket analysis

Cricket match analysis and predictions

Data-led previews for the next 72 hours, built from verified results: FairPlay's model estimate, recent form, head-to-head and venue figures, with the model's tested accuracy in full.

Match previewsTeam ratingsModel accuracy

Upcoming match previews

35 matches start in the next 72 hours and 19 of them have a model estimate. Below are the first 12 with enough verified history, earliest first. Form shows the last five results in the same format group, most recent first; T10 and 100-ball matches count with T20.

Canada Super 60 League · T10

Whiterock Warriors v Vancouver Anchors

Whiterock Warriorsrating 1470
Vancouver Anchorsrating 1523
49% Whiterock WarriorsFairPlay model estimateVancouver Anchors 51%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Whiterock Warriors 0, Vancouver Anchors 1. Most recent 9 Oct 2025.
Venue
BC Place Stadium, Vancouver: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (30 results), the median first-innings total was 123 and the side batting first won 33%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

Canada Super 60 League · T10

Mississauga Masters v Toronto Sixers

Mississauga Mastersrating 1552
Toronto Sixersrating 1470
57% Mississauga MastersFairPlay model estimateToronto Sixers 43%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Mississauga Masters 1, Toronto Sixers 0. Most recent 12 Oct 2025.
Venue
BC Place Stadium, Vancouver: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (30 results), the median first-innings total was 123 and the side batting first won 33%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

Canada Super 60 League · T10

Brampton Blitz v Montreal Royal Tigers

Brampton Blitzrating 1529
Montreal Royal Tigersrating 1457
58% Brampton BlitzFairPlay model estimateMontreal Royal Tigers 42%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings in T20 and shorter cricket: Brampton Blitz 1, Montreal Royal Tigers 1. Most recent 14 Oct 2025.
Venue
BC Place Stadium, Vancouver: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (30 results), the median first-innings total was 123 and the side batting first won 33%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

CSA T20 Challenge · T20

KwaZulu-Natal Inland v Rocks (Boland)

KwaZulu-Natal Inlandrating 1436
Rocks (Boland)rating 1567
44% KwaZulu-Natal InlandFairPlay model estimateRocks (Boland) 56%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: KwaZulu-Natal Inland 0, Rocks (Boland) 1. Most recent 22 Nov 2025.
Venue
City Oval, Pietermaritzburg: fewer than 8 verified results in T20 and shorter cricket here in the last 12 months, so no venue figures.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

World Championship of Legends · T20

South Africa Champions v West Indies Champions

South Africa Championsrating 1559
West Indies Championsrating 1468

No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in T20 and shorter cricket.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: South Africa Champions 1, West Indies Champions 0. Most recent 19 Jul 2025.
Venue
Sharjah Cricket Stadium: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (86 results), the median first-innings total was 136 and the side batting first won 53%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

World Championship of Legends · T20

India Champions v England Champions

India Championsrating 1485
England Championsrating 1476

No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in T20 and shorter cricket.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: India Champions 0, England Champions 1. Most recent 27 Jul 2025.
Venue
Sharjah Cricket Stadium: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (86 results), the median first-innings total was 136 and the side batting first won 53%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

CSA T20 Challenge · T20

Warriors v Lions

Warriorsrating 1534
Lionsrating 1485
57% WarriorsFairPlay model estimateLions 43%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Warriors 1, Lions 0. Most recent 11 Nov 2025.
Venue
St George's Park, Gqeberha: fewer than 8 verified results in T20 and shorter cricket here in the last 12 months, so no venue figures.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

ICC Men's T20 World Cup Regional Qualifications · T20I

Bahrain v Thailand

Bahrainrating 1497
Thailandrating 1439
57% BahrainFairPlay model estimateThailand 43%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Bahrain 0, Thailand 1. Most recent 22 Nov 2024.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

ICC Men's T20 World Cup Regional Qualifications · T20I

Kuwait v Qatar

Kuwaitrating 1490
Qatarrating 1532
49% KuwaitFairPlay model estimateQatar 51%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Kuwait 1, Qatar 0. Most recent 12 Apr 2025.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

Twenty20 International Women · T20I

Zimbabwe W v West Indies W

Zimbabwe Wrating 1358
West Indies Wrating 1481
40% Zimbabwe WFairPlay model estimateWest Indies W 60%

Pulled towards 50% because one side has fewer than 20 rated matches in this format.

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Zimbabwe W 0, West Indies W 1. Most recent 3 Oct 2026.
Venue
Takashinga Sports Club, Highfield, Harare: fewer than 8 verified results in T20 and shorter cricket here in the last 12 months, so no venue figures.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

Emirates D10 Tournament · T10

Emirates Red v Dubai

Emirates Redrating 1360
Dubairating 1633
20% Emirates RedFairPlay model estimateDubai 80%

Statistical model estimate — not a betting rate or a guarantee.

Head-to-head
Last 7 meetings in T20 and shorter cricket: Emirates Red 2, Dubai 5. Most recent 29 Sept 2026.
Venue
Seven Districts Ground, Ajman: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (23 results), the median first-innings total was 100 and the side batting first won 57%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

World Championship of Legends · T20

Australia Champions v Pakistan Champions

Australia Championsrating 1479
Pakistan Championsrating 1534

No model estimate: one or both teams have fewer than 8 rated results in T20 and shorter cricket.

Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting in T20 and shorter cricket: Australia Champions 0, Pakistan Champions 1. Most recent 29 Jul 2025.
Venue
Sharjah Cricket Stadium: over the last 12 months of T20 and shorter cricket here (86 results), the median first-innings total was 136 and the side batting first won 53%.
Match centre and FairPlay rates →

FairPlay international team ratings

Senior international teams with at least 20 rated matches in the format and a match in the last 12 months. Every team starts at 1500. Men's and women's teams are rated separately because they never play each other.

T20: international men's teams

#TeamRating
1England1667
2India1661
3Pakistan1628
4Cayman Islands1596
5Australia1580
6South Africa1570
7New Zealand1544
8Qatar1532
9Germany1529
10Nepal1528
11Afghanistan1507
12Hong Kong1505
13United Arab Emirates1498
14Namibia1495
15Sri Lanka1486

T20: international women's teams

#TeamRating
1India W1601
2England W1594
3South Africa W1568
4Sri Lanka W1552
5New Zealand W1527
6West Indies W1481
7Pakistan W1470
8Bangladesh W1409

One-day: international men's teams

#TeamRating
1New Zealand1591
2India1585
3United States of America1561
4Scotland1556
5Nepal1536
6South Africa1531
7Netherlands1525
8United Arab Emirates1523
9Pakistan1511
10Australia1505
11England1494
12Bangladesh1488
13Oman1486
14Sri Lanka1475
15West Indies1442

One-day: international women's teams

#TeamRating
1Australia W1701
2India W1556
3England W1550
4South Africa W1542
5West Indies W1474
6Bangladesh W1455
7Ireland W1384

How accurate is the model?

FairPlay pre-match rating model, version 1, awaiting sign-off for trading. Every figure below comes from testing it against verified results it had not yet seen.

Matches tested
2,411
of 6,000 decided results
Picked the winner
57%
side rated 50% or more won
Brier score
0.242
lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.250
Log loss
0.677
lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693

Calibration: do the percentages hold up?

A well-calibrated model's 60% favourites should win about 60% of the time. The test replays every verified result in date order and records each estimate before that match updates the ratings. Last run Sat, 3 Oct, 20:37 IST.

Matches grouped by the model's estimate for the first-named team, compared with how often that team actually won.
Estimate bandMatchesAverage estimateActually won
10–20%1 (small sample)20%0%
20–30%5 (small sample)26%0%
30–40%7536%41%
40–50%61647%44%
50–60%1,32854%55%
60–70%34364%67%
70–80%4173%68%
80–90%2 (small sample)82%100%

Accuracy by format, every model setting and how estimates become rates: prediction methodology.

How FairPlay's analysis works

Ratings

Each team has a separate rating for T20 and shorter, one-day, and Test and first-class cricket, starting at 1500. After every decided result the winner takes points from the loser; an upset moves more points than an expected win. Ties, draws and no-results do not change ratings.

Estimates

The gap between two ratings gives each side's chance, with the first-named team treated as the home side (worth 30 rating points); neutral venues are not yet told apart. With fewer than 20 rated matches the estimate is pulled towards 50%, and below 8 none is shown.

Context

Form, head-to-head (24 months, same format group) and venue figures are counted from the same verified results. They are shown for context and are not added to the estimate.

Limits

The model knows nothing about players, pitch, weather or selection. Estimates describe likelihood, never certainty, and they are not advice to bet.

Cricket analysis questions

What is a FairPlay model estimate?

It is FairPlay's own estimate of each team's chance of winning, calculated from team ratings built on verified results. It is not a betting rate and not a guarantee: a team given 40% should still win about four matches in ten. FairPlay's rates are separate prices that include a house margin.

How do the estimates relate to FairPlay rates?

FairPlay rates start from the same estimate and then add a published house margin, so the chance implied by a rate is slightly higher than the estimate. The FairPlay rates page explains the margin in full.

Why do some matches have no estimate?

The model needs at least 8 rated results for both teams in the format. Test and first-class matches have no estimate because they can be drawn, and FairPlay has not yet built and tested a draw model.

Why is a famous team rated below a smaller one?

A rating reflects results against the teams a side has actually played. Teams that rarely meet each other are not directly comparable, so treat the tables as a guide rather than an official ranking.

Is this analysis written by people?

Not yet. Everything on this page is calculated from verified match data by FairPlay's published method. Written analysis will carry its author's name and publication date when it appears.

Does FairPlay account for pitch, weather or team selection?

Not in the model. Venue figures are shown for context, but the estimate uses team results only. Late changes such as injuries or rain can make a match very different from the estimate.

How FairPlay sets its rates · Cricket statistics · All upcoming matches

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